#10 Monty Hall Problem
date
May 14, 2023
slug
10-montyhall
status
Published
tags
summary
Can you answer this simple puzzle, I couldn’t
time
0h-25m
type
Post
For the whole day, I was out without any internet. I didn’t make any progress with regards to any hardcore skills, but I did start reading this book new pop science book called “Naked Statistics”. One of thee interesting puzzle questions presented in the book is Monty Hall Problem.
Image are a contestant at a game show, behind you are three doors. One of the doors contains a big prize and the other too quite literally contain just a goad. An actual living breathing goat. The host asks you to pick one among the three and then reveals one of the doors that has a goat behind it. Now can can choose to swap your choice ? should you do it ?
You still don’t have any new information. One door is opened which obviously shows a goad in-front. You had previously already decided a door which may or may not contain the prize. Now you can choose to make the switch. So, the statistical answer is Yes, you should always.
The book argues with statistical explanation that you should in fact make the switch. I kind of understand the reason when thinking in terms of pure logic and numbers but that is really a hard fact to digest for me. How that be true as the prize location has been predetermined and you can not know for sure which one is it.
I had discussed this with a friend and he took some great efforts to simply and explain it to me but I’m still not sure if I completely understand it. The intuition for it just doesn’t fit right.
Probably the first time, I am having real trouble grasping something. So, that counts as true progress.